What Tech Is Next for the Solar Industry?

Solar panel installations have become increasingly popular, but the solar panel manufacturing industry is in the doldrums because supply far exceeds demand. The poor market may be slowing innovation, but advances continue; judging by the mood this week at the IEEE Photovoltaics Specialists Conference in Tampa, Fla., people in the industry remain optimistic about its long-term prospects.
The technology that's surprised almost everyone is conventional crystalline silicon. A few years ago, silicon solar panels cost $4 per watt, and Martin Green, professor at the University of New South Wales and one of the leading silicon solar panel researchers, declared that they'd never go below $1 a watt. "Now it's down to something like $0.50 of watt, and there's talk of hitting 36 cents per watt," he says.

SEE ALSO: Why We Need More Solar Companies to Fail

The U.S. Department of Energy has set a goal of reaching less than $1 a watt — not just for the solar panels, but for complete, installed systems — by 2020. Green thinks the solar industry will hit that target even sooner than that. If so, that would bring the direct cost of solar power to $0.06 per kilowatt-hour, which is cheaper than the average cost expected for power from new natural gas power plants. (The total cost of solar power, which includes the cost to utilities to compensate for its intermittency, would be higher, though precisely how much higher will depend on how much solar power is on the grid, and other factors.)
All parts of the silicon solar panel industry have been looking for ways to cut costs and improve the power output of solar panels, and that's led to steady cost reductions. Green points to something as mundane as the pastes used to screen print some of the features on solar panels. Green's lab built a solar cell in the 1990s that set a record efficiency for silicon solar cells — a record that stands to this day. To achieve that level of efficiency, he had to use expensive lithography techniques to make fine wires for collecting current from the solar cell. But gradual improvements have made it possible to use screen printing to produce ever finer lines. Recent research suggests that screen printing techniques can produce lines as thin as 30 micrometers — about the width of the lines Green used for his record solar cells, but at costs far lower than his lithography techniques.

SEE ALSO: Why Solar Installations Cost More in the U.S. than in Germany

Green says this and other techniques will make it cheap and practical to replicate the designs of his record solar cell on production lines. Some companies have developed manufacturing techniques for the front metal contacts. Implementing the design of the back electrical contacts is harder, but he expects companies to roll that out next.
Meanwhile, researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have made flexible solar cells on a new type of glass from Corning called Willow Glass, which is thin and can be rolled up. The type of solar cell they made is the only current challenger to silicon in terms of large-scale production—thin-film cadmium telluride. Right now such solar cells are made in batches (as are silicon solar cells), but the ability to make them on a flexible sheet of glass raises the possibility of continuous roll-to-roll manufacturing (like printing newspapers), which can reduce the cost per watt by increasing production.

SEE ALSO: First Solar Shines as the Solar Industry Falters

One of Green's former students and colleagues, Jianhua Zhao — cofounder of solar panel manufacturer China Sunergy —announced this week that he is building a pilot manufacturing line for a two-sided solar cell that can absorb light from both the front and back. The basic idea, which isn't new, is that during some parts of the day, sunlight falls on the land between rows of solar panels in a solar power plant. That light reflects onto the back of the panels and could be harvested to increase the power output. This works particularly well when the solar panels are built on sand, which is highly reflective. Where a one-sided solar panel might generate 340 watts, a two-sided one might generate up to 400 watts. He expects the panels to generate 10% to 20% more electricity over the course of a year.
Such solar panels could be mounted vertically — like a fence — so that one side collects sunlight in the morning, the other in the afternoon. That would make it possible to install the solar panels on very little land; they could serve as noise barriers along highways, for example. Such an arrangement could also be valuable in dusty areas. Many parts of the Middle East might seem to be good places for solar panels, since they get a lot of sunlight, but frequent dust storms decrease the power output. Vertical panels wouldn't accumulate as much dust, which could help make such systems economical.
Looking even further ahead, Green is betting on silicon, aiming to take advantage of the huge reductions in cost already seen with the technology. He hopes to greatly increase the efficiency of silicon solar panels by combining silicon with one or two other semiconductors, each selected to efficiently convert a part of the solar spectrum that silicon doesn't convert efficiently. Adding one semiconductor could boost efficiencies from the 20% to 25% range to around 40%. Adding another could make efficiencies as high as 50% feasible, which would cut in half the number of solar panels needed for a given installation. The challenge is to produce good connections between these semiconductors — a task that the arrangement of silicon atoms in crystalline silicon makes quite difficult.

http://mashable.com/2013/06/21/solar-industry-tech/

Lux Research expects a healthy and profitable return of solar industry

In the report, issued by Lux Research’s Solar System Intelligence and Solar Components Intelligence teams, the analysts note that the whole industry is on the way to a prompt recovery and a number of early movers have already made strategic moves into key areas like “system deployment or balance of systems technologies” for the resurgence.

The total module capacity will be brought down to 58 GW in two years’ time, thanks to the bankruptcies of “uncompetitive players” and a healthy capacity expansion carried out under financial constraints. The growth of emerging markets like China will raise the global demand from 31 GW in 2012 to 52 GW in 2015. Meanwhile, the module glut will be reduced from 100% in 2012 to 12%.

The report also reveals that companies like BASF and Johnson Controls have already got themselves prepared for the coming pickup by “leveraging existing technologies or market platforms”. ABB’s purchase of Power-One was also given as an example for the growing interest in acquisitions. Lux Research highlights that due to the increased number of partnerships and acquisitions, the cost of entry will be driven up.

Commenting on the future moves of the stakeholders, the report says the surviving stakeholders will invest in technologies to ensure efficient production and the long-term health of the companies. The fields of investment will include the advanced crystalline silicon cell technologies, “hybrid photovoltaic/thermal cogeneration systems” and the coating technologies for high class modules.

Read more: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/lux-research-expects-a-healthy-and-profitable-return-of-solar-industry_100011541/#ixzz2UweikE22

Is The Solar Industry Generating More Energy Than It Is Using?

Stanford University has published some research in Environmental Science and Technology revealing that the solar power industry is probably generating more energy than it is actually taking to manufacture solar panels.

Stanford University has produced some interesting solar power research
(image credit: Sandip Bhattacharya)

That is a huge achievement but why? Well, only five years ago, the solar panel industry was actually using about 75 per cent more energy than it was generating.
The solar power industry appeared to have an excellent year in 2012. Based on statistics from the Solar Energy Industries Association the solar market in the United States of America grew by an incredible 76 per cent. We have previously commented in an earlier article about the fact that in March 2013 Australia saw its 1 millionth solar panel system installed.
Since 2010, solar power capacity has increased by a commendable 100 per cent in both concentrated and photovoltaic format. That statistic represents a huge reduction in carbon emissions.
What is also interesting and is good to hear is that if solar panel installations continue as they are doing the liability in respect of carbon and energy usage required to produce the solar panels may be paid off by 2015 but definitely by 2020. By 2020, a mere 2 per cent of the electricity produced internationally will be needed to ensure the growth of the solar power industry.
Reasons for this are due to improved ways of manufacturing that need a lower level of energy to make and install solar photovoltaic units plus a better quality of solar panel is now being made. In addition, solar cells are proving to be much more efficient when it comes to doing the job that they are intended for – the conversion of energy that emanates from the sun into electricity.
Interestingly, it is Germany that accounts for around 40 per cent of the world’s installed solar power yet they do not exactly benefit from a great deal of sunshine. In the case of Saudi Arabia, it is forecast to have 20 gigawatts by 2010 and 41 GW by 2032.
Let us hope that the solar panel industry continues to flourish although it will be interesting to see if the issues between China, USA and the EU will have a negative impact.
http://www.solarpanelsuk.co.uk/news/?p=1677

Did First Solar Just Upend the Solar Industry?

When First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR  ) announced the acquisition of TetraSun yesterday it really announced a fundamental shift in the company's strategy. It isn't giving up on thin film, not yet, but it is laying the groundwork for a future without its familiar CdTe panels. TetraSun is an investment in crystalline silicon solar cells that First Solar has been fighting against for over a decade. Silicon has won the battle, and now even First Solar will join the crowd.
The claims of TetraSun
First Solar says it is buying technology that will allow it to make panels that are more efficient and cheaper than competitors. So, is that claim really true? There are a lot of unknowns.
The press release from First Solar claims that TetraSun can make 21% efficient cells at costs similar to those of conventional multicrystalline silicon solar cells. If we use Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL  ) as the proxy, that means manufacturing costs of about $0.64 per watt.

The challenge is that Tet…

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/10/did-first-solar-just-upend-the-solar-industry.aspx

Treasury, DECC & EU vs. Solar industry

Working in the renewables industry, particularly solar, feels like a constant battle against an ever-shifting enemy. Challenges appear to randomly materialise almost on a monthly basis, forcing industry to limp from one fight to the next. Just when the industry thinks it has managed to successfully navigate the choppy water, a fresh storm breaks sweeping it back into treacherous seas. The sense of optimism that greeted the beginning of 2013 from within the solar industry was palpable; the troubles of the past seemed just that, a thing of the past. The industry had stable policy and was even elevated to a key technology in government’s thinking. Seasoned solar veterans warned me that the period of stability was to be short-lived – I dismissed them as cynics whose sense of perspective had been eroded by years of lobbying a succession of disinterested ministers. However, true to the veterans’ word, the European Commission (EC) announced that it was taking the UK government to court over the reduced VAT rate that solar and other energy-saving technologies enjoy. Hot on the heels of that announcement the EC also announced that it would be imposing the mandatory registration of all imported Chinese solar products in case it wanted to enact retroactive measures. Cue the uncertainty. Suppliers across the UK are now unwilling to import Chinese panels for fear of substantial retroactive duties. When you throw in poor exchange rates and limited availability you create a volatile cocktail. But at least back home the domestic solar policy is finally stable and predictable, right? Well, not quite… Announcing the FiT rates from 1 May, Ofgem listed that the quarter would end on 1 July not 1 August – shortening the FiT period by a month. The decision to shorten the FiT period wasn’t even trailed by DECC. Even when it was ‘announced’ it was just published in small print on the obscure, convoluted back pages of the Ofgem website. The logic behind the change in date is sound – to align solar PV’s quarters with other technologies – but why oh why did DECC feel the need to sneak the announcement out? The whole saga has jeopardised the slowly healing relationship between DECC and the solar industry. Could the Treasury and the chancellor Mr Osborne come to the rescue? The notoriously fossil fuel addicted Osborne (and extended family) has repeatedly pushed for a watering down of the UK’s green commitments. However, before the 2013 Budget, Treasury said it would be accepting the “overwhelming majority” of the recommendations from Lord Heseltine’s 2012 report on boosting growth in the UK; one of these warned that without the “real certainty” of a long-term energy policy, investors will “simply not risk the enormous sums of capital” needed to develop the UK’s energy infrastructure. Surely opening the door for Osborne to praise the shovel ready and low-carbon renewable projects across the UK. Or not. Osborne chose his words very carefully when he said in his Budget speech: “Creating a low carbon economy should be done in a way that creates jobs rather than costing them.” The chancellor then moved on to praise “low cost” shale gas, gifting it a “generous tax regime”. Anyone involved in renewables will take immediate issue to the Osborne’s use of “low cost”. In a recent Energy and Climate Change Committee investigation into the impact of shale gas, DECC itself stated: “EU shale gas production is not expected to have as great an impact on EU gas prices as has been the case with US shale gas production.” The Chancellor also talked up the proposed nuclear development at Hinkley Point, describing it as a “major step forward”, despite the failure to agree a strike price. There are various reports circulating that DECC will offer EDF a strike price of around £100/MWh for up to 40 years – much more generous terms then those being discussed for any renewable technology. STA head of external affairs Leonie Greene said: “The chancellor's fixation with old technologies flies in the face of mainstream evidence. The World Bank said last year that business as usual in the face of climate change presents an international crisis. Rising fossil fuel prices are impacting on inflation and household energy bills. Ofgem analysis shows a gas supply crunch is coming our way, increasing prices. For all these reasons, it is vital to divert energy infrastructure investment into renewables as quickly as possible. “Renewable technologies like solar need bold leadership and a positive vision if we're to compete successfully in the global race the Prime Minister keeps highlighting. We’re on a path to nowhere if his Chancellor continues to ignore climate change, the economic potential of the green economy, and the dangerous upward trajectory of fossil fuel prices.” So here we are again: solar against the world. It’s time to dig deep and start sharpening up the industry’s accidental expertise – lobbying. http://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/editors_blog/treasury_decc_eu_vs._solar_industry_2356

How Wuxi Suntech’s Bankruptcy Impacts China’s Solar Industry

The bankruptcy of Wuxi Suntech, the primary operating unit of Suntech Power (NYSE:STP), is viewed as a sign of changing times in China’s solar sector. Although the unit will continue production as it works to restructure debt, the bankruptcy underscores that government support for the solar sector could be weaning and only the fittest firms will survive in the long term.
Here are key takeaways of the bankruptcy and its implications for the broader Chinese solar sector and some of the solar firms that we cover.
Raising Funding From International Investors Will Become Difficult
Suntech, like most other Chinese solar firms, expanded its operations through heavy borrowing (debt of over $2 billion). With the default on its convertible notes and the consequent cross defaults and bankruptcy, international investors in particular are likely to be apprehensive about making loans to Chinese solar firms, since Chinese banks often have priority claims over a firm’s assets compared to international lenders in the event of insolvency. Raising equity will also be difficult. The enormous debt levels and weak cash flows that most firms are experiencing put equity holders in a very fragile position. For instance, Suntech raised around $742 million in two stock offerings on the Wall Street in 2005 and 2009. The stock is now worth less than 1% of its peak value.
Raising funds from domestic investors is also likely to be difficult given China’s relatively underdeveloped domestic bond markets and firms will have to increase there dependence on China’s state run banks such as the China Development Bank and the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. With Wuxi Suntech’s bankruptcy, it is possible that state-run banks will get more selective in their lending to solar companies as well.
Highlights That China’s Central Government Is Reluctant To Bail Firms Out
The government has played a central role in developing China’s solar industry by providing loans and credit lines for companies to build and expand their manufacturing capacities. Later, state governments began bailing firms out and providing for liquidity needs when the situation in the  global solar market took a turn for the worse. These measures haven’t been very effective in improving the overall health of the industry since the primary issues plaguing the industry were overcapacity and rising trade barriers.
Now, the central government seems to have taken cognizance of this with China’s state council’s announcement in December that it would refrain from propping up weak solar companies and indicated that consolidation and bankruptcies would help the industry. The central government’s reluctance to step in and bail Suntech out is certainly a sign that the government is holding firm on its word. Regional governments on the other hand could bail companies out on the premise of protecting jobs and the local economy, however whether the central government will allow such a move remains to be seen.
Industry Consolidation Could Be Imminent
Suntech has a total manufacturing capacity of around 1.8 GW of which around 1.2 GW was part of the Wuxi Suntech unit which filed for bankruptcy. ((Bloomberg)) Since the firm is likely to continue its manufacturing operations as it restructures debt, it is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the industry capacity. However, the broader industry trends point towards consolidation within the solar industry. China alone estimated to have as much as 59 GW of manufacturing capacity while global demand in 2012 was a mere 30 GW. ^[1] This has lead to severe competition among manufacturers with panel prices falling by around 30% over the last year.
Most Chinese solar firms have had gross margins which were negative or in low-single digit during 2012 which is definitely not sustainable in the long run and firms continue to hemorrhage cash. Now, considering that international funding could tighten and government support could also wean, it looks increasingly likely that smaller and less healthy firms would be forced to shut shop or be acquired. Consolidation within the industry would bring about better pricing and profitability.

http://www.trefis.com/stock/ldk/articles/175418/how-wuxi-suntechs-bankruptcy-impacts-chinas-solar-industry/2013-03-22

Suntech Default Signals Chinese Solar Industry Consolidation

Suntech Power Holdings Co. (STP)’s notice that it defaulted on $541 million of bonds brings China a step closer to consolidating its solar industry, which includes four of the top six panel makers.
The company, based in Wuxi, China, received a notice of default from the trustee administering the convertible bonds, which matured March 15, according to a statement yesterday.

Suntech’s default signals that the government and China Development Bank Corp., which bankrolled the industry, is reluctant to continue funding the solar industry’s expansion, said Angelo Zino, an analyst with Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC.
“It just doesn’t make sense for any type of support from the government,” Zino said in an interview yesterday. “There’s not going to be that white knight out there that saves Suntech.”
The company’s American depositary receipts fell 8.4 percent in New York trading to close at 64 cents.
China has supported solar companies through credit lines from local government or state-backed agencies, prompting panel makers to expand factories. Suntech more than doubled its annual production capacity to 2,400 megawatts in 2011 from 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That made it the biggest solar manufacturer. Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., which may take that title based on 2012 results, almost tripled its capacity to 1,700 megawatts during the same period.
That wrested control of the global solar industry away from German and Japanese companies. The boom in capacity led to a global glut and triggered a 23 percent decline in the price of panels in the past year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Excess Capacity

Now, the government is seeking to pare excess manufacturing capacity and reduce the dozens of companies making solar products into a few companies that can survive.
China, forecast to become the largest solar-power market this year, may abolish subsidies for some of the largest projects and target aid for smaller ones, according to Meng Xiangan, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, which acts as a conduit between government and industry in Beijing.
For Suntech, which had more than $2.2 billion of debt at the end of March 2011, the outlook for survival is bleak, said Zino. The company hasn’t released earnings since then, after announcing in July that it may have been the victim of fraud involving 560 million euros ($725 million) of German bonds that may have never existed.
“The endgame for Suntech doesn’t look good,” Zino said. “They are essentially insolvent.”

Local Support

The company is talking with local government agencies in Wuxi about financial support. It’s also negotiated a two-month forbearance with 63 percent of its bondholders, who have agreed not to exercise their rights until May 15.
Other bondholders haven’t agreed to the deal and are preparing to file a lawsuit against the company, according to James Millar, a partner at the law firm Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale & Dorr LLP in New York. He represents bondholders who own more than 1 percent of the debt and expects more to join the suit this week.
There is “nothing I’m aware of that will stop our lawsuit,” he said in an interview. Suntech “may be forced to file bankruptcy.”
The company is “likely” to file for bankruptcy after defaulting on the debt, Aaron Chew, an analyst with Maxim Group LLC in New York, said in a March 14 research note. “A nasty fight could be in order.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/first-china-bond-default-signals-consolidation-in-solar-industry.html

How 3D printing could revolutionise the solar energy industry

More efficient, less complex and cheaper, 3D solar cells can also capture more sunlight than conventional PV models During President Obama's recent state of the union address, I was particularly drawn to one specific comment he made. The statement by the president I'm referring to was, "A once-shuttered warehouse is now a state-of-the art lab where new workers are mastering the 3D printing that has the potential to revolutionise the way we make almost everything." 3D printing has been increasingly used to produce jewellery, dental work, prototyping and even creating human organs. However, as an energy strategist, I'm most excited about the potential for 3D printing to revolutionise solar panel and photovoltaic (PV) cell manufacturing. For starters, for those not familiar with 3D printing, it's the ability to make a three-dimensional "solid" object from digital design specifications. In other words, 3D printing is really a smart printer that creates objects layer by layer through additive manufacturing or the deposits of materials such as glass, silicon, plastic, resin and ceramic by following a virtual blueprint or animated software. You may be asking why I'm so positive on its relationship to solar power. Well, that's easy. Right now there is a huge lack of energy storage, which, coupled with known manufacturing inefficiencies, have damaged solar industry sentiment. Therefore future production of solar cells must be more sustainable. This has me intrigued by the potential 3D printing can have on the solar sector. I believe this new printing medium could be a game-changer as 3D solar cells, despite advances in energy storage, can capture more sunlight than conventional PV models. How? They are more precise (using copper, indium, gallium, selenide: CIGS), less complex and weigh less. Greater efficiency in lieu of not having direct sunlight overhead is something I believe is extremely encouraging for 3D solar considering many pessimists who continue to question the longevity of solar power produced in a day by ordinary flat PV cells. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) believe 3D solar panels could be roughly 20% more efficient than flat solar panels. 3D printing can extend the amount of solar absorbed into cells, which may turn some haters of solar power into believers. Another benefit is cost. While installation is the dominate cost for solar power, it is estimated that precision 3D printing could drop production costs by 50% by eliminating many of the inefficiencies associating with the waste of costly materials such as glass, polysilicon or even indium. The ability to control the material inputs of your finished solar product would further turn traditional manufacturing of PV on its head by creating more of an on-demand model that doesn't require fabrication at distant warehouses. The fact 3D printing can take place just about anywhere should mitigate the lofty shipping costs which also deters positive views toward traditional flat PV. Then there's the lower weight and size. Most people think of solar as a power source for homes and that's fine. However, its my view 3D printing can produce extremely thin solar cells which can be printed on untreated paper, plastic or fabric rather than expensive glass. Therefore the advanced ability to create flexible solar panels at a lighter weight could have bigger positive implications for wearable hi-tech clothing, radios and future electronics. This gives 3D solar more mass appeal I believe. This could even bode well for some rather unique future opportunities for 3D solar in areas such as automotive paint and commercial/residential buildings which may incorporate a thin "solar spray", something that is far less of an eyesore than PV panels on the roof. 3D printing looks set to become a hot topic in coming years as the US tries to meet 2020 carbon goals while also further exploring ways to become less dependent on foreign sources of oil. That may ultimately mean 3D printing could turn the solar market on its edge sooner than later. • John J Licata is the chief energy strategist of Blue Phoenix, an independent research and consulting company focused on next generation energy http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2013/feb/22/3d-printing-solar-energy-industry