In the report, issued by Lux Research’s Solar System Intelligence and Solar Components Intelligence
teams, the analysts note that the whole industry is on the way to a
prompt recovery and a number of early movers have already made strategic
moves into key areas like “system deployment or balance of systems
technologies” for the resurgence.
The total
module capacity will be brought down to 58 GW in two years’ time, thanks
to the bankruptcies of “uncompetitive players” and a healthy capacity
expansion carried out under financial constraints. The growth of emerging markets like China
will raise the global demand from 31 GW in 2012 to 52 GW in 2015.
Meanwhile, the module glut will be reduced from 100% in 2012 to 12%.
The report
also reveals that companies like BASF and Johnson Controls have already
got themselves prepared for the coming pickup by “leveraging existing
technologies or market platforms”. ABB’s purchase of Power-One
was also given as an example for the growing interest in acquisitions.
Lux Research highlights that due to the increased number of partnerships
and acquisitions, the cost of entry will be driven up.
Commenting on
the future moves of the stakeholders, the report says the surviving
stakeholders will invest in technologies to ensure efficient production
and the long-term health of the companies. The fields of investment will
include the advanced crystalline silicon cell technologies, “hybrid
photovoltaic/thermal cogeneration systems” and the coating technologies
for high class modules.
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